Expected Value: The Backbone of Profitable Sports Investments

The concept of "Expected Value" is a key idea for market traders and more especially to this article and our know-how, Sports Investment - the exploitation of sports investment markets for earnings chances. Anticipated value is what keeps professional black jack gamers playing when they are down "in the hole" $200,000. Anticipated value is what keeps a professional sports gambler betting when they are 2-8 in their last 10 positions. Expected value is how hedge funds produce algorithms to capitalise on price motions in the stock and futures markets. Read more: agen judi casino

In layperson's terms, what is Expected Value?

EV is the money you expect to win (or lose) statistically by participating in any "event" - whether a hand of poker, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a wager on a sporting occasion. It is your mathematical advantage (or downside) in video games of opportunity and ability. This is the advantage that a casino makes use of to gradually take money away from you when playing games such as roulette, craps, slot machines and constant multi-shuffle blackjack.

Let's take a simple example utilizing a dice - something everybody recognizes with.

Clearly a dice has 6 numbers printed on it, in a statistical event these are called "results". 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6. So we have 6 possible results. Each roll of the dice gives us a result with a "one in 6" possibility of taking place as all are similarly likely.

To determine the anticipated value, we need possibilities, so let's compute the likelihood of any one number occurring. 1/ 6 = 0.166

We can increase each of the results on the dice (1 through 6) by their probabilities to obtain the expected value.

1 x 0.1667 + 2 x 0.1667 + 3 x 0.1667 + 4 x 0.1667 + 5 x 0.1667 + 6 x 0.1667 = 3.5

This figure can then be made use of in video games of chance to compute who has a benefit in a dice gambling game.

Suppose a casino is willing to pay us a dollar amount of money representing the number on the dice (such as you roll a 2 you win $2 and so on) - with 2 cautions:

1) our wager needs to be $3 and 2) if we roll a 6 we lose our stake. Is this an attractive video game for us to bet on?

In this video game we have 5 successful results of equivalent possibility, but with unequal payoff.

To get the anticipated value we calculate the video games return by determining the anticipated value - which is essentially approximately the return. We use the possibilities increased by the return.

We have 5 choices that offer us a monetary result:

0.1667 x 1 + 0.1667 x 2 + 0.1667 x 3 + 0.1667 x 4 + 0.1667 x 5 = 2.5

and one losing payoff for rolling 6 (a return of absolutely no): 0.1667 x 0 = 0

Entirely we have:

0.1667 x 1 + 0.1667 x 2 + 0.1667 x 3 + 0.1667 x 4 + 0.1667 x 5 + 0 = 2.5

Since the expense of playing the video game is $3, we have 100 % probability (possibility of 1) of paying $3 to play, represented by -3 x 1 = -3

adding this to the equation offers us: -3 + 2.5 = - 0.5.

For every video game played with an investment of $3 we can expect to lose 50c as an Expected Value. Obviously when playing we willl win some online games by rolling a 4 or 5, and some video games we lose a dollar or 2, but with a profit expectation that is damaging, this is a normal casino game - a game of "damaging expectation".

In your investing, and sports betting, planning to select favorable expectation circumstances, these are the only situations where you will create wealth on your own long term.

Dr. Sport. - aka - Sam J. Perry.

There is now a "ace in the hole" that some savvy financiers are using to publish important, and tax complimentary, profile returns from sports investing, every year.

Prior to you even ask - no, it's not a get rich quick plan. It needs a little bit of work on your part, practically every day ... 5 minutes of so.

It arised from a conference of 3 minds:

-a Singapore based Physics PHD,.

-a skilled Australian sports investor,.

-and a United States based "Dr.Sport" analysis professional.

It's not for everyone.

2008 +176.55 %.

2009 +8.6 %.

2010 +46.85 %.

2011 +78.1 %.

2012 follow at the professional gambler site.

Over 50 years of wagering and statistical modelling experience ... all working to extract profits from exploitable sports markets.